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The Art Basel and UBS Survey reveals that Generation X is now the leading art buyer, with average spending at $578,000, while millennial spending has dropped by 50% to $395,000. Despite a 4% decline in overall art market sales, median spending remains stable, and optimism among high net worth individuals is growing, with 91% expecting a positive market outlook. Chinese collectors are also spending significantly, with a median of $97,000, contradicting previous reports of a slowdown in their purchases.
The CLO market faces a mixed outlook amid macroeconomic challenges, with interest rate cuts potentially improving the financial stability of highly leveraged companies but also lowering yields for investors. Japanese investors remain active despite recent volatility, while liability management exercises are increasingly common as sponsors restructure debt. The rise of private credit is reshaping competitive dynamics, making it harder for CLO managers to secure quality syndicated loans, necessitating innovation in CLO structures.
The Bank of Japan's monetary meeting on October 30-31, 2024, is anticipated to maintain current rates, with a potential 0.10% hike in December being a possibility. Governor Kazuo Ueda's cautious stance on inflation and growth, alongside uncertainties from the US elections, may influence future rate decisions. Market participants are closely watching economic forecasts and the widening US-Japan bond yield differentials, which have strengthened the USD/JPY, while the Nikkei 225 faces upward trendline support amid limited risk-taking.
IG
Despite soaring stock markets, IPO activity remains sluggish, with many international exchanges experiencing a drought. The disconnect stems from a lack of compelling companies and a shift in investor preference towards stable cash flows over speculative ventures. While some emerging markets show signs of life, overall, the IPO landscape is parched, reflecting deeper systemic issues.
Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato has heightened the urgency of monitoring currency fluctuations as the yen reaches a near three-month low against the dollar. He expressed concerns over "one-sided, rapid moves" in the forex markets and emphasized vigilance against speculative trading.
Asian stocks declined, with Japanese, South Korean, and Australian shares falling, while Hong Kong stock futures also dropped. The yen steadied after reaching its weakest level against the dollar since July. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 rose, buoyed by strong earnings from Tesla, as traders adjusted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts amid rising Treasury yields. The term premium on 10-year Treasury notes reached its highest since November.
Nippon Express Holdings Inc. is actively seeking acquisitions in India to accelerate its growth in the rapidly expanding market. Tadahiro Furue, a senior executive, indicated a willingness to incur debt for this purpose, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet and achieving a 10% return on invested capital.
Seven & i Holdings Co. plans to split into two entities and expand internationally, aiming for group revenue of ¥30 trillion ($197 billion) by the 2030 fiscal year, nearly doubling from ¥17.7 trillion in 2023. CEO Ryuichi Isaka highlighted the strategy's focus on enhancing convenience-store operations abroad amid interest from Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.
The upcoming US election poses significant implications for markets, with a Trump victory likely leading to US equity outperformance and potential tariff risks, while a Harris win could favor emerging markets. A Republican sweep may drive yields higher due to increased deficits, despite a healthy economy. Overall, risk assets are expected to perform well in 2024, regardless of the election outcome.
The dollar is on track for its best month since 2022, rising against all Group-of-10 currencies as traders adjust Federal Reserve expectations and brace for a potentially disruptive presidential election. The greenback has gained approximately 3.2% in October, with the yen falling to its weakest level in 12 weeks, while the euro and pound have declined for three consecutive sessions.

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